To play on the question “If a tree falls in the forest ... ,” one might ask “If a restaurant closes in New York, how long before another opens in the same spot?” The answer may range from weeks to months, but it is almost guaranteed that landlords in the Big Apple rarely lose rent for long when it comes to restaurants. Despite every newspaper article and blog that bemoans the demise of New York’s dining scene, the actual number of 22,000+ eating establishments in the city hasn’t changed since the 1980s.
     Restaurants are always opening and closing in New York, especially in tough times like the dot.com crash, post-911, the recessions of the late 20th century and, of course, the Covid pandemic, which for long stretches shuttered every eating establishment in the city, as elsewhere.
      And since most restaurants operate on a slim net profit, many upon re-opening had to attract back its former clientele and new people—many of whom either had Covid or feared dining out among those who might. Even now, people who learned to work at home in the suburbs don’t venture into New York as much, and business lunches are still off.
      Covid was a crushing blow, added to which, in the post-pandemic era, attracting staff, from cooks to dishwashers, has been an enormous problem everywhere. (Current unemployment in New York is at 6%, nationally at 3.5%.) Then there is inflation, which has occurred fast and furiously in the food sector, not to mention energy and transportation costs. How can anyone expect to survive under such pressures?
      Yet, survive they do, coping, balancing, cutting staff and maybe lunch service, getting creative with lesser priced ingredients, not re-stocking still-full wine cellars and maximizing their social media. The result is, if you merely read the Wednesday food section of The New York Times, you’ll find Florence Fabricant’s weekly “Off the Menu” column announcing the opening of half a dozen restaurants of every stripe, with perhaps notification of one closing. Also, the just-published Michelin Guide to New York 2022 added six restaurants with a one-star ranking, now totaling 55.
      Most of those food media who cried wolf at the start of Covid (when TV personality Tom Colicchio insisted 70% of U.S. restaurants would close permanently) would today have a tough time getting into restaurants ranging from the ultra-fine dining places like Le Bernardin to a steakhouse like Gage & Tollner in Brooklyn, and there are lines out the door of Mexican, Argentinian, Thai and Italian eateries in SoHo, the Lower East Side and Dumbo in Brooklyn. Tasting dinners at $150 and more thrive at Eleven Madison Park, Serashina Hori, Caviar Russe, Wicked Jane and Frevo.
      There were some significant high-end flops over the past two years, including L’Atelier de Joël Robuchon, Ichimura at Uchu, Benno and The Four Seasons, but all for different reasons, as it has ever been.  Looking back to a New York restaurant guide I co-wrote back in the 1990s, I note that many of the most famous and successful restaurants of those years were long ago closed, including big names like Café Boulud, Lespinasse, Picholine, Aureole, Chanterelle, La Caravelle, and San Domenico, all for various reasons.
      And as downtown neighborhoods became gentrified, many old-timers like Canteen, Woo Le Oak, Da Silvano and Florent gave way to both upscale and more authentic Asian and South American restaurants, which now proliferate in those neighborhoods. Restaurateurs who couldn’t absorb a rent hike were quickly replaced by those who believed they could.
      It seems that as soon as one restaurant vacates premises, a new one moves right in: The Four Seasons was replaced by the elegant Fasano (right); Brasserie 8½ became Cucina 8½; Parma became Parma Nuova; Brasserie Ruhlmann is now Le Rock; A Voce is Mark’s Off Madison; El Quijote became a retro-smash after re-opening.
      Traditional and new steak and seafood houses are packed every night of the week, including Empire Steak, BLT, Hawksmoor, Gallaghers and Ramerino Prime Italian. Veteran high-end restaurateurs like Daniel Boulud opened two new restaurants, Le Pavilllon and Le Gratin; Danny Meyer opened Ci Siamo and re-opened Manahatta and Maialino.
      The remarkable thing is that these closings  and openings might have happened at any time in the past two decades, and, if Covid, inflation and staff shortages make running a restaurant all the tougher, it says a great deal about those men and women willing to buck odds that even in good times dictate that four out of five new restaurants go out of business within two years.
      But that’s the thing about New York: One door closes and another one opens, and those chefs and restaurateurs, who agree they might be crazy, are undaunted because, like all small business men and women, they just have to try. And it’s still true that New York is still the big prize.